The Consumer Confidence Index expresses the "propensity to consume" in the following month, as a percentage score given by respondents on HILL's independent survey panel. Respondents are asked to rate their propensity to consume (i.e. their desire to buy products or use services) in the following month, taking 100 as the maximum propensity to consume. We have conducted these surveys every month since April 1993.

• 2011
• 2010
• 2009
• 2008
• 2007
• 2006
• 2005
• 2004
• 2003
• 2002

Propensity to consume
for February 2011
49.7 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for February declined 2.4 points to 49.7 points, a gain of 1.9 points over February of 2010. During a typical year the score for February tends to fall on-month, but the index has now gained on-year for 13 straight months. In fact, the rate of on-year growth accelerated noticeably in January and February, suggesting the recovery in consumer sentiment remains quite firm.
Uncertainties about the future have recently eased somewhat due to recoveries among overseas economies and improvements in Japanese production. There have also been signs of improvement among recent economic indicators. This month the Bank of Japan upgraded its economic assessment for the first time in nine months and the government raised its view of the economy for the first time in seven months in its January monthly economic report. There have also been solid recoveries for corporate results, with many listed firms expected to record increased sales and profits for the current fiscal year through March. Consumer sentiment is also improving with the Cabinet Office's Consumer Confidence Survey improving in January for the first time in seven months. Despite concerns that higher raw materials costs will push up prices of foods and gasoline, the recovery in consumer confidence has continued in January and February. The score for March could be strong as this index tends to move higher towards the spring.

The Consumer Confidence Index for men declined 0.2 point from January to 45.5 points, an increase of 2.1 points over February of 2010. The size of the on-month decline was much smaller compared to a typical February, likely due to the hopeful signs among economic trends. The score for men has also risen on year for the eighth straight month. The score for women was 53.9 points, a 4.7-point decline from January, but a 1.7-point increase over February of last year. Momentum slowed somewhat from January, but the on-year score was up for the third straight month. The difference between the scores for men and women contracted in January to the narrowest point in the past 12 months.
Many members of our panel said that overall they want to cut back a little bit on their consumption. Many women in particular said they were taking "a break" from spending as they had spent a lot during the year-end / New Years period and have some events planned for the spring.

In the simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities, the propensity to spend on "daily (minor) purchases" and "medium-sized purchases" declined from January for both men and women. The desire to spend on "major (expensive) purchases" increased slightly for men, but fell for women.

Propensity to consume
for January 2011
52.1 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for January fell 4.5 points from December to 52.1 points, which marked a gain of 2.3 points over January of 2010. The level is a bit low for a January, but this was the first time in four years that the January score was up on-year. As the index has now climbed on-year for 12 straight months, starting from February 2010, the recovery trend continues.
Economic conditions remain challenging. The headline diffusion index of business sentiment in the December Bank of Japan Tankan report worsened for the first time in seven quarters and the Cabinet Office left its assessment of economic conditions for November at "pausing". However, the index of current economic conditions in the December Economy Watchers Survey rose amid signs that the decline in consumer sentiment is bottoming. This prompted the first upward revision of economic conditions in this survey in nine months. Some other hopeful signs have also been reported. Since the start of 2011, the Nikkei Stock Average has remained above 10,500 points and New Year sales, both online and at department stores, have been better than last year. This Consumer Confidence Index has started 2011 up on-year, raising hopes that the recovery trend will continue from February onward.

The Consumer Confidence Index for men declined 4.0 points from December to 45.7 points. This was a gain of 1.6 points over January of 2010 and marked the first on-year gain for any January in four years. Still, this was the second lowest score for any January on record. The recovery trend rolls on, but the overall level remains rather low. The score for women dropped 5.0 points from December to 58.6 points, but was up 3.2 points on-year. This was the first on-year increase for a January in three years and was the second highest score for a January since 2001. After last month marking the highest score for any December since 1997, the pace of recovery for women appears to remain strong at the start of the new year. Many members of the panel said, "After spending a lot at the end of last year, I want to spend a little less this month," but many men and women were still in the New Year holiday spirit and expressed a healthy desire to spend. New Year sales and the popular fuku-bukuro (mystery grab bags) sales spurred on the desire to spend, especially among women.

In the simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities, the propensity to spend on "daily (minor) purchases" increased for women, while the desire to spend on "medium-sized purchases" and "major (expensive) purchases" declined on-month for both men and women. Due to the New Year holidays, many men and women expressed the desire to spend more on the category of "life with your family."

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