The Consumer Confidence Index expresses the "propensity to consume" in the following month, as a percentage score given by respondents on HILL's independent survey panel. Respondents are asked to rate their propensity to consume (i.e. their desire to buy products or use services) in the following month, taking 100 as the maximum propensity to consume. We have conducted these surveys every month since April 1993.

• 2010
• 2009
• 2008
• 2007
• 2006
• 2005
• 2004
• 2003
• 2002

Propensity to consume
for Jul 2010
53.8 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for July rose 3.2 points from June to 53.8 points, the highest score for this year and a gain of 1.3 points over July of last year. During a typical year the score will rise in July as summer bonuses are received and the summer holiday season kicks off. However, this was the first time that the score for July gained both on-month and on-year since 2006. The score has now risen on-year for six straight months. The rate of recovery slowed in May and June, but regained a little momentum in July.

Business sentiment in the Bank of Japan’s June Tankan report turned positive for the first time in two years. The government also upgraded its assessment of the economy for the first time in three months in its Monthly Economic Report for June. However, recently there has been an increase in indicators that cast some doubt over the economic outlook. These include the recent worsening of diffusion indexes, the Economy Watchers’ Survey and the unemployment rate. There are concerns that the pace of economic recovery will slow. On the other hand, it has been reported that the number of people planning summer vacations this year (domestic and overseas) will likely return to levels seen before the start of the financial crisis, while department stores, electronics mass retailers and other major retailers have enjoyed better sales this year compared to last year during the period when consumers had received their summer bonuses. These developments point to a brightening environment for consumer sentiment.
It will be interesting to see the score for August during this time of both improving sentiment and concerns about the future economic outlook.

The Consumer Confidence Index for men rose 1.9 points from June to 47.7 points, which was roughly even with the score for July 2009, the lowest score for any July on record. The recovery in sentiment for men has failed to gain much traction, possibly due to lingering concern about market trends such as the stronger yen and falling stock markets. Conversely, the score for women rose 4.6 points from June and 2.6 points compared to July of 2009 to 60.0 points, the highest score for any July since 2000. Sentiment among female consumers appears to have good momentum, having now risen on-year for six straight months. Many women on our panel said that they wanted to spend money on summer bargain sales, travel and leisure. Currently the propensity to spend is clearly stronger among women than men.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities showed that for men the propensity to spend increased for “medium-sized purchases” and “major (expensive) purchases”, but was flat for “daily (minor) purchases”. For women the propensity to spend increased for “medium-sized purchases”, but decreased for “daily (minor) purchases” and “major (expensive) purchases”.

Propensity to consume
for Jun 2010
50.6 points

During a typical year the Consumer Confidence Index tends to decline in June and this trend held true with the score for June 2010 dropping 1.2 points from May to 50.6 points. The score was unchanged from June of last year. The recovery trend appears to have lost momentum in May and June as compared to the March-April period. As a result, the average score for the January-June period came to 50.1 points. This was better than the 49.5 point average for the first half of last year, the lowest score on record, but was still the second lowest score for any first half.

There are growing concerns about the economic outlook. Looking at recent macroeconomic data, diffusion indices and the Economy Watchers’ Survey have turned negative due to unease about the European financial crisis, falling stock prices, a stronger yen and worsening unemployment for two straight months. On the other hand, there are signs that income conditions are improving. Specifically, overall cash wages increased for two straight months and bonuses this summer at large corporations are expected to be up for the first time in two years (according to a Keidanren survey). The Cabinet Office’s Consumer Confidence Survey for May was up on-month for the fifth straight month, indicating that sentiment among households continues to improve. It will be important to see how these trends carry over into the second half of the year. During a typical year the propensity to spend increases in July as summer bonuses are received and the summer vacation season gets underway. As such, a big recovery is possible.

The Consumer Confidence Index for men rose 0.8 point from May to 45.8 points, a decline of 0.4 point from June of last year. This score has declined on-year for the second straight month. The economic turbulence due to the financial unease originating from Europe still seems to be having an impact. The average score for men during the first half was 44.8 points, the lowest on record. The recovery for men has hit a standstill. The score for women fell 3.2 points from May to 55.4 points, a 0.5-point improvement over June of last year. This score has improved on-year for five straight months. The first half average for women was 55.4 points, an increase of 1.3 points compared to the first half of 2009. So the recovery in sentiment among women appears to still be on track. Both men and women on the panel provided various reasons for not wanting to spend in June such as “I spent too much during the Golden Week holiday,” “I want to save for the summer” and “I haven’t gotten my summer bonus yet.” These comments suggest spending may increase in July.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities showed that for men the propensity to spend increased for “daily (minor) purchases” and “major (expensive) purchases” but declined for “medium-sized purchases”. For women the propensity to spend was up for “daily (minor) purchases”, down for “medium-sized purchases” and unchanged for “major (expensive) purchases”.

Propensity to consume
for May 2010
51.8 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for May climbed 1.2 points from April to 51.8 points, a 0.5-point gain over May of last year. The index continues to recover, having now risen on-month for three straight months and on-year for four straight months. However, the pace of recovery slowed somewhat in May due mainly to a drop in the score for men. Consumer confidence among men tends to be more easily swayed by macroeconomic factors and shares prices. It is likely that sentiment for men was chilled by the Greek financial crisis and the resultant drop in global share prices, which occurred during the May survey period. It will be important to monitor the scores next month to determine if this is just a temporary phenomenon.

Recently released economic indicators continue to improve / rise. The Cabinet Office’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for March rose for a 13th straight month and by the biggest monthly jump on record, underscoring the economy’s recovery. The Cabinet Office’s Consumer Confidence Index for March improved for a third straight month, prompting the government to raise its assessment of consumer confidence for a second straight month. Likewise, in the April Economy Watchers Survey current and future economic conditions DIs both improved for the fifth straight month. The government’s Monthly Economic Report for April also concluded that business sentiment is improving and personal consumption is recovering. Newspapers reported that spending on travel, eating out and shopping were strong during this year’s Gold Week holiday. Many members of our survey panel expressed desires to spend on travel and clothes. It would appear that consumption is improving even for items not affected by government stimulus measures.

The Consumer Confidence Index for men retreated 0.8 point from April to 45.0 points, which was a 1.0-point decline versus May of last year. On the other hand, the score for women increased 3.2 points from April, to 58.6 points, a gain of 1.8 points over May of last year. The score for men was down on-month and on-year for the first time in three months, and was the lowest score for any May on record. As mentioned above, sentiment among men was probably impacted by the Greek financial crisis and the resultant drop in global stock prices. The score for women was up on-year for the fourth straight month and was the highest May score since 2000. As a result, the difference between the scores for men and women expanded to 13.6 points. Sentiment among women is relatively strong, with many female members of the panel making upbeat comments about their propensity to spend.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities showed that for men the propensity to spend on “daily (minor) purchases”, which improved last month, again fell in May. Their desire to spend was up for “medium-sized purchases”, but down for “major (expensive) purchases”. For women the propensity to spend improved for all three categories, highlighting the strong sentiment among female consumers. Scores for both men and women were up for “hobbies and pastimes” and “recreation and leisure” due to the Golden week holiday.

Propensity to consume
for April 2010
50.6 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for April rose 0.5 point from March to 50.6 points, a gain of 2.1 points over the same month last year. This was the second lowest score for any April on record, but the index has now increased on-month for two straight months and on-year for three straight months. Even though the scores have remained at low levels since the start of 2010, there appears to be some signs of a recovery compared to the same periods last year.
According to economic assessments in the government’s March Monthly Economic Report and the Bank of Japan’s Tankan report, the economy has yet to reach a true recovery phase, but gradual improvements are underway. Share prices have also been rising recently. In the Cabinet Office’s March Economy Watchers Survey there were stark improvements for household-related indicators, with both the current and future economic conditions DIs rising for a fourth straight month. Supermarket and department store sales continued to fall on-year in February, but at a slower pace. Even though the employment and income conditions remain very tough, the recent trends in this survey suggest that sentiment among consumers is gradually improving. During a typical year there is a strong tendency for this index to increase in May. It will be interesting to see if this improvement in sentiment carries into next month.

The Consumer Confidence Index for men climbed 1.1 points from March to 45.8 points, which was a 1.8-point gain over April of last year. The score for women was roughly unchanged from March at 55.4 points (a 0.1-point dip), but this was a solid 2.4-point gain over April of last year. The scores for men have increased on-month and on-year for two straight months, while the scores for women have climbed on-year for three straight months. The recovery has been particularly strong for women, with an average on-year improvement of 1.4-points each month between January and April.
Both men and women on our panel expressed a wiliness to spend more actively as spring approaches. Many of the panel members with lower scores for April said that they were holding off on spending this month in order to set money aside for the upcoming Golden Week holidays. This opinion suggests their scores will be higher in May.

A simultaneous survey of life style priorities showed that for men the propensity to spend on “daily (minor) purchases” recovered to previous levels after a sharp drop in March, while the desire to spend increased for “major (expensive) purchases” and was unchanged for “medium-sized purchases”. For women the propensity to spend declined for “daily (minor) purchases” and “medium-sized purchases”, while remaining unchanged for major (expensive) purchases.

Propensity to consume
for March 2010
50.1 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for March climbed 2.3 points from February to 50.1 points, which was a gain of 2.3 points over March of last year. This was the second lowest score for any March on record, but the index has now risen on-year for two straight months. In particular, the big on-year gain for March provides a sense that consumption is gaining strength for the first time in a long while.
The difficult employment conditions, deflation and other factors raise some concerns about the sustainability of the economic recovery, but recent macroeconomic indicators suggest that the recovery is gradually spreading. Unemployment in January fell below 5% for the first time in 10 months and the economic assessment in the government’s Monthly Economic Report for March was upgraded for the first time in eight months. January total cash wages also increased on-year for the first time in 20 months, retail sales rose for the first time in 17 months and the economic assessment in the February Economy Watchers’ Survey was also revised upward. So the indicators closely linked to the everyday lives of consumers have become a bit brighter. These conditions heighten expectations that the index will continue rising in April.
The Consumer Confidence Index for men rose 1.3 points from February to 44.7 points, which was a gain of 0.8 point over March of last year. The score for women increased 3.3 points to 55.5 points, a gain of 3.7 points versus March 2009. The scores for both women and men were up both on-month and on-year, but this was still the second lowest March score for men on record. On-year scores for women have been improving strongly since August, helping to lift the overall index.
Opinions among panel members were a bit mixed with some of the men and women saying “there is nothing I want to buy right now”, while others expressed stronger interest in wanting to buy something. Some female panel members noted an inclination toward seasonal-based consumption with such comments as “I want to dress up for spring”, “I want new clothes for my graduation ceremony / entrance ceremony” and “I want to be ready for my new career.”
A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities showed that for men the propensity to spend increased from February for “medium-sized purchases”, but decreased for “daily (minor) purchases” and “major (expensive) purchases.” The decline in the desire to spend on “daily (minor) purchased” was particularly large. For women the propensity to spend on “major (expensive) purchases” declined from February, but the scores for “daily (minor) purchases” and “medium-sized purchases” rose sharply, returning to the strong levels seen between November of last year and January of this year.

Propensity to consume
for February 2010
47.8 points

The February Consumer Confidence Index fell 2.0 points from January to 47.8 points, which marked a modest 0.3-point increase over February of last year. Despite the slight on-year improvement, this was still the second lowest score for any February on record. The propensity to spend has remained weak for both January and February.
The Coincident Index in the Cabinet Office’s Indexes of Business Conditions for December rose for the ninth straight month due to growth for both manufacturing sector production and the Industrial Production Index. However, the economic recovery seems weak as increased production has so far done very little to help improve employment and income conditions. In its Monthly Economic Report for January the Cabinet Office noted some improvements, but still assessed that the economy “remains in a difficult situation” due to no real improvement for employment conditions. Even though a handful of macroeconomic indicators have improved, consumers still remain concerned about the future and so the propensity to spend is not improving. During a typical year the scores for March are higher than those for February. It will be interesting to monitor this survey next month to see if this pattern holds true amid the current difficult conditions.

The Consumer Confidence Index for men slipped 0.7 point from January to 43.4 points, which was down 0.5 point from February of last year. The score for men has fallen on-year for two straight months and this was also the second lowest score for any February on record. The index for women slumped 3.2 points from January to 52.2 points. This was an improvement of 1.3 points compared to February 2009, but the score still remains at a very low level. Many members of the panel cited “concerns about the future” and a “lack of money” as reasons for reduced spending. There seemed to be a strong inclination to save in February after spending over the year-end / New Year period. Several men and women also said “there was nothing I really wanted to buy this month.” This is because they probably already took advantage of their winter bonuses and the New Year bargain sales to make desired purchases.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities showed that for men the propensity to spend on the three categories of “daily (minor) purchases”, “medium-sized purchases” and “major (expensive) purchases” were all higher compared to January, but the scores for “daily (minor) purchases” and “medium-sized purchases” remain at very low levels. On the other hand, the scores for women were down from January for all three categories. In particular, there was a sizable drop for “daily (minor) purchases”, which had risen for several months. This is likely a reaction to increased spending during the year-end / New Year period.

Propensity to consume
for January 2010
49.8 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for January fell 5.8 points from December to 49.8 points, which was also down 1.8 points compared to January of 2009. During a typical year the score tends to drop in January after an uptick in December, but this was the first time ever that the score for January fell below 50 points. This is the lowest level for the Consumer Confidence Index to start a new year in the history of this survey. The poor propensity to spend has clearly carried over from last year.
The December Monthly Economic Report and the Cabinet Office’s Index of Business Conditions reported improvements in economic conditions, but these improvements are still not being felt in the day-to-day lives of consumers. The employment and income conditions remain severe. Specifically, the unemployment rate again worsened in November and total cash earnings fell for the 18th straight month. The December Economy Watchers’ Survey rose for the first time in three months, but improvements in personal consumption-related indicators have been losing momentum. Furthermore, retailers reported seeing many cautious, bargain-oriented shoppers during the popular sales marking the start of the New Year. February scores are typically among the lowest for any given year. It will be interesting to see what the score will be next month after the index starts 2010 at the lowest level for any year on record.

The Consumer Confidence Index for men sank 4.5 points from December to 44.1 points, which was down 2 points from January of last year. This was also the lowest score on record for the relevant month for the second straight month. The score for women tumbled 7.2 points to 55.4, a drop of 1.7 points from January 2009. This was the third lowest score for any January on record. This was largely due to seasonal factors, as many men and women on the panel said that they increased consumption towards the end of last year and so curtailed their spending in January. However, some men on the panel also cited reduced incomes, particularly smaller bonuses, as well as fears that the economy will continue worsening. Some women on the panel said that they were curtailing their spending by only buying necessities, but there were also those who said the New Year’s bargain sales increased their desire to spend. This is probably one facet of the above-mentioned cautious, bargain-oriented shopping.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities showed that for men the propensity to spend on the three categories of “daily (minor) purchases”, “medium-sized purchases” and “major (expensive) purchases were all at low levels and lower than in December. The scores for women remained at fairly high levels for all three categories. In particular, the score for “daily (minor) purchases” increased on-year for the fifth straight month.

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