The Consumer Confidence Index expresses the "propensity to consume" in the following month, as a percentage score given by respondents on HILL's independent survey panel. Respondents are asked to rate their propensity to consume (i.e. their desire to buy products or use services) in the following month, taking 100 as the maximum propensity to consume. We have conducted these surveys every month since April 1993.

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Propensity to consume
for December 2007
57.5 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for December surged 9.4 points from November to 57.5 points. This marked a strong recovery from last month when the index fell to its lowest level all year, and was the biggest percentage gain for any month on record. Despite some concerns after the big drop in sentiment in November, the Consumer Confidence Index bounced back to hit its highest level for the year in December, which is the case during a typical year. The strong improvement in sentiment can be attributed to consumers getting caught up in the holiday spirit and due to expectations for good winter bonuses this year. However, compared to December of last year the index was actually down 0.8-points. The average Consumer Confidence Index for 2007 came to 52.7, a decline of 0.7 point from 2006 and the first on-year setback in four years. The index has been rather unstable since August with large swings each month due to big short-term changes to the economy brought about by the U.S. subprime mortgage market problems, higher oil prices and other factors.
Various statistics from the Cabinet Office and Bank of Japan have prominently used terms such as "standstill" and "receding" when analyzing near-term economic and consumption trends. The desire to spend has been hurt by higher prices for food, gasoline and other products prominent in our daily lives, combined with higher utility charges, increased tax burdens and sluggish growth in wages. Against this difficult backdrop it will be very interesting to see how the Consumer Confidence Index starts off 2008, beginning with January's Consumer Confidence Index figures.

A breakdown by gender shows that the propensity to spend among men in December increased 8.5 points from November to a year-high 52.9 points and the score for women jumped a big 10.3 points to 62 points, also a high for the year. Compared to December of last year this was a 0.3-point decline for men and a 1.4-point retreat for women. For men this also marked the sixth straight month of on-year declines. The average score for men in 2007 was 48.0 points, down 1.4 points from 2006 and the average score for women was 57.4 points, a decline of only 0.1 point from last year.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities in December showed on-month increases in the desire to spend on "small everyday items", "medium-sized purchases" and "major (expensive) purchases" for both men and women. The scores for men for all three categories hit their highest levels in December, likely due to good winter bonuses this year.

Propensity to consume
for November 2007
48.1 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for November fell to 48.1 points, its lowest level this year. This was a big 5.2-drop from October and a 5.3-point decline from November of last year. In fact, this was the lowest score for any November since the start of this survey in 1993. This was also the first time that the index fell below 50 points since September of 2003, which was on of the worst period for consumer confidence. For the past several months there have been reports in the newspapers and on TV about the rising prices for gasoline, food and daily necessities. It can be assumed that these higher prices are now starting to be felt in various aspects of consumer lifestyles, which is resulting in concerns about increased pressure on family budgets and more prudent consumption patterns. The big drop in stock prices during this survey period also had a negative impact on consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, the Cabinet Office's October Consumer Confidence Index, a key indicator of the propensity to consumer for the next six months, came in at its lowest level since March of 2004. The Cabinet Office's Economy Watchers Survey for October also had a lower DI for the seventh straight month. So in this manner various indicators have pointed to a declining propensity to consumer. During a typical year the Consumer Confidence Index in this survey hits its highest level in December. So under these difficult conditions, it will be interesting to monitor the level of this index next month.

A breakdown of November's Consumer Confidence Index by gender shows a 3.3-point drop for men from October to 44.4 points, a big 5.1-point setback compared to November of last year. The November score for women slumped 7.3 points from October to 51.7 points, a 5.8-point slide from November of last year. These big on-month and on-year declines resulted in the lowest scores for both men and women this year and the worst scores for any November since the launch of this survey. Recently good scores for women helped to cover weak scores for men and support the overall index. However, this month the score for women also fell sharply.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities revealed big drops for both men and women in terms of their desire to spend on "major (expensive) purchases". In particular, the score for women, which last month was in double-digits for the first time in four months, fell to its lowest level this year in November.

Propensity to consume
for October 2007
53.3 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for October climbed 2.9 points from September to 53.3 points, bouncing back from the on-month drop seen last month. This marks a 0.6-point gain compared to October of last year and is the best score for any October over the past five years.
The Cabinet Office kept its assessment of the economy in August at "improving", the same term it has used since May. Worries about the stock market have also been fading. However, the Cabinet Office's Economy Watchers' Index, which gauges the perceptions of workers with jobs sensitive to economic trends, declined for a sixth straight month in September. Rising prices for gasoline, food and other daily necessities since this summer are starting to have noticeable impacts on household budgets and consumption patterns. So it will be very interesting to see if the Consumer Confidence Index can remain in this recovery trend for the rest of this year.

Taking a closer look at October's Consumer Confidence Index by gender shows a 0.7-point gain for men in October from September to 47.7 points and a big 5.2-point jump for women to 59.0 points. Compared to October of last year this represented a slight 0.1-point drop for men, but a 1.3-point improvement for women. The score for women bounced back nicely after last month falling to its lowest point this year. In fact, this was the highest women's score for any October since 2000. The score for men, on the other hand, saw an on-year decline for the fourth straight month.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities revealed that a high percentage of both men and women are looking to spend more on items related to their work, a continuation of the trend seen last month. Among women there was a slight increase in the desire to "purchase things". In particular, the score for making "major (expensive) purchases" was in double-digits for the first time in four months.

Propensity to consume
for September 2007
50.4 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for September fell 3.5 points from August to 50.4 points, dropping to its lowest level this year. This also represented a 2.4-point drop from September of last year and was the second lowest score for any September since this survey was launched in 1993. Consumer confidence had been in a nice upward trend since June, but sentiment may have been chilled somewhat after a strong August. Instability on the stock markets and problems with Japan's pension system provided negative psychological impacts. High crude oil prices have also driven up prices for foods and daily necessities, which further chilled consumer sentiment. Some dark clouds are also starting to form over the Japanese economy with the Cabinet Office announcing that April-June GDP was lower for the first time in three quarters. It will be important to watch how these factors influence consumer confidence during the autumn months.

A further breakdown of September's Consumer Confidence Index by gender shows a 2-point drop for men from August to 47.0 points and big 5.2-point setback for women to 53.8 points. Compared to September of last year this was a 2.3-point drop for men and a 2.5-point retreat for women. The score last month for women was the third highest score for any August since the start of this survey, but there was a sudden reversal with the score for September coming in at the lowest level for any month this year. The score for men remains weak with September marking the third straight month of on-year declines.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities showed increases in the percentages of both men and women that want to focus more on work now that the summer vacation season is over. Figures representing the inclination to "purchase things" were roughly unchanged from the drops seen in August. This underscores the shift from "consumption" to "work" seen during this month.

Propensity to consume
for August 2007
53.9 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for August slipped 0.3 point from July to 53.9 points. During a typical year this index tends to fall back in August, but this was still a 1.4-point gain over August of last year and was the highest score for any August since 2000. The Cabinet Office in its Monthly Economic Report for July described the economy as "recovering", but its Economy Watchers Survey recorded a lower DI in July for the fourth straight month. There were other causes for economic anxiety such as the rising prices for gasoline, food and daily necessities, along with unstable stock prices. It will be important to monitor how these factors influence consumer confidence in the coming months.

A breakdown of August's Consumer Confidence Index by gender shows a mere 0.1-point gain for men from July to 49.0 points (down 1.2 points from August of last year), but a 0.6-point setback for women from July to 59.0 points (up 4.1 points from August of last year). The score for women was the highest for any August since 1995 and the third best August since the launch of this survey in 1993. This strong propensity to spend on the part of women provided support for the overall index in August. However, the score for men, which has been in a weak trend since the start of this year, has now seen on-year drops for two straight months. When comparing the January-August averages for this year with the averages for the same period last year, the score for men is down 1.2 points this year at 48.0 points, while the score for women enjoys a 0.9-point gain for an average of 57.8 points.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities should strong gains in the desire to spend on "hobbies and pastimes" and "recreation and leisure" due to summer vacations. However, both men and women were less inclined to "purchase things" during this month due to a lull in summer-bonus linked buying.

Propensity to consume
for July 2007
54.2 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for July improved 1.1 points from June to 54.2 points, but this represented a slight 0.2-point decrease compared to July of last year. During a typical year July is the second strongest month for the Consumer Confidence Index after December as this is the month that employees receive their summer bonus. However, the score for this July was somewhat disappointing considering that record high summer bonuses were paid this year. It will be interesting to see if this will have an impact on the index in coming months.

A breakdown of July's numbers by gender shows a 0.8-point gain in the Consumer Confidence Index for men from June to 48.9 points and a 1.5-point rise for women to 59.6 points. This was the highest score for women this year, but it was still 0.2-point below the score for July of last year. In fact, the scores for both men and women have fallen again on-year.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities showed that the desire to "purchase things" among women was within the historical averages. On the other hand, the scores for men were at their highest levels for the past year for the categories of "daily (minor) purchases", "medium-sized purchases" and "major (expensive) purchases", possibly reflecting a keener awareness among men of the higher summer bonuses.

Propensity to consume
for June 2007
53.1 points

The June Consumer Confidence Index is based on the results of a survey conducted at the end of May in which the 420 general consumers that make up the Hakuhodo Institute of Life and Living's survey panel were asked to rate their propensity to consume (desire to buy things and use services) for the month of June, 2007 using a scale in which 100 represents their highest desire to spend. This Consumer Confidence Index is a leading indicator for forecasting monthly consumption trends and has been widely used since its introduction in April of 1993.

The Consumer Confidence Index for June inched up a mere 0.2 point from May to 53.1 points. However, this was a 1.7-point improvement over June of last year, for the first on-year gain in four months. This was also the highest score for any June since 2002. Consumer confidence had been sluggish since February, but seems to again be on the upswing, possibly due to some major corporations announcing plans to pay record high summer bonuses this year. It will be interesting to see how this impacts the index from July.

A breakdown of June's Consumer Confidence Index by gender shows a 0.7-point drop for men from May to 48.1 points, but this was a 1-point gain over June of last year and marked the first on-year improvement in five months. For women there was a 1-point gain from May to 58.1 points. This was a 2.3-point gain over June of last year and the first on-year gain in three months. The trend for women had been a little weaker recently, but has made a solid recovery in June. In fact, this was the highest score for women for any June since 1998.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities showed a drop in the desire to spend on "hobbies and pastimes", which was up last month. This was probably due to the start of the rainy season. On the other hand, both men and women expressed a desire to spend more on "major (expensive) purchases", likely a result of the bigger summer bonuses.

Propensity to consume
for May 2007
52.9 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for May rose 1.6 points from April to 52.9 points. This was a 1.6-point drop compared to May of last year, registering an on-year decline for a third straight month. During the past three years the lowest consumer confidence scores have been seen during the months of March, April and May and so there has been no real improvement to these sluggish conditions. Furthermore, the basic assessment from the government's diffusion index released in the middle of May was that the economy has "recently been weak". On the other hand, major corporations are expected to pay higher summer bonuses this year for the fifth straight year. Since summer bonus are directly tied to the health of family budgets, it will be interesting to see what impact this extra income has on the propensity to spend in June.

A further breakdown of May's Consumer Confidence Index by gender results in a 3.5-point gain for men from April to 48.8 points, but a 1.9-point drop compared to May of last year, marking the fourth straight month of on-year declines. For women there was a slight 0.2-point decline from April to 57.1 points, which was a 1.2-point setback compared to May of last year and an on-year drop for the second straight month. The size of the on-year drop for women was also bigger in May as compared to April, which could put a cloud over the consumption by women that had been very strong.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities showed a weak desire among men to spend on "daily (minor) purchases", "medium-sized purchases" and "major (expensive) purchases" for a second straight month, but the scores for women were a tad above average. Both men and women showed stronger desires to spend on "hobbies and pastimes" and "recreation and leisure". This is likely due to seasonal factors and so it is possible that further growth will be seen in these areas in the coming months.

Propensity to consume
for April 2007
51.3 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for April slipped 0.7 point from March to 51.3 points. This was a 2.1-point drop from April of last year, marking an on-year decline for the second straight month.

The Consumer Confidence Index has been rather weak since February of this year following a strong upward trend that began in the autumn of last year. Sluggishness for the overall index can be blamed on a particularly large drop in consumer confidence for men. The government described the state of the economy as "recovering" in its assessment released in the middle of April. However, the government also held the view that corporate production, which has been supporting economic expansion, is slowing and has even turned weaker in some cases. It will be important to continue monitoring these economic trends.

A breakdown of April's Consumer Confidence Index by gender shows a 1.1-point decrease for men from March to 45.3 points and a 0.4-point dip for women to 57.3 points. The gap between the scores for men and women has expanded even further as compared to March. This marked a 3.7-point drop for men compared to April of last year, making this the lowest score for any April since HILL began compiling these statistics. The propensity to spend among women slipped 0.6 points as compared to April of last year, marking the first on-year drop in eight months. However, the score for women still remains comparatively solid.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities produced rather low scores for men in terms of their desire to make "medium-sized purchases" and "major (expensive) purchases", while the scores for women were within the expected averages. There seems to be a continuation of the pattern of robost consumption by women and weak consumption by men seen in March.

Propensity to consume
for March 2007
52.0 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for March increased 1.1 points from February to 52.0 points. However, this was a 1.4 points decline from March of last year, marking the first on-year decline in seven months since August last year. During a typical year the propensity to spend tends to increase in March as consumers prepare for the spring, but this March spending was a little weaker than usual. It will be important to watch how changes in stock prices and other macroeconomic trends impact consumption.

A breakdown of March's Consumer Confidence Index by gender shows a very slight 0.4-point increase for men from February to 46.4 points and a gain of 1.9 points for women to 57.7 points. This means that the difference in scores for men and women is now more than 11 points, which is the largest gap since 2001. Compared to March of last year the score for men was down by 4.7 points, sinking to the lowest point since 2003. On the other hand, the propensity to spend among women remains solid, with their score up 2.0 points over March of last year. This was the seventh straight month of on-year gains for women and marked the highest sore since 2001. The widening gap between the scores for men and women is believed to be due in part to the sharp drop global stock markets in late February, as consumer sentiment among men is more easily swayed by macroeconomic factors.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities produced scores within the expected averages for women in terms of the desire to "purchase things". The scores for men, on the other hand, were at their lowest levels for the past year for the categories of "daily (minor) purchases", "medium-sized purchases" and "major (expensive) purchases". The recent pattern of robust consumer sentiment among women and a weak propensity to spend among men is continuing. There are, however, expectations that consumption by men will soon be picking up.

Propensity to consume
for February 2007
50.9 points

During a typical year the Consumer Confidence Index tends to fall sharply in February, but for this year the index fell only 3.8 points from January to 50.9 points, which was unchanged compared to February of last year. The Consumer Confidence Index has been strong since November of last year and 2007 started off on and upbeat note with a solid score last month. However, there appears to be something of a lull in February and so the index was unable to mark its highest on-year monthly score since 2001 for a fourth straight month. The propensity to spend tends to recover in March, but it is difficult to tell what impact the mild winter has had on consumption conditions. Whether or not there will be a true recovery in personal consumption will depend largely on how much more corporations are willing to pay their employees following the key spring labor negotiations.

A breakdown of February's Consumer Confidence Index by gender shows a big 5.1-point drop for men to 46.0 points and a 2.5-point setback for women to 55.8 points. Compared to February of last year this represented a 0.9-point drop for men, but a gain of 0.9-point for women. While the February score for men has fallen off sharply, the score for women remained solid, marking its highest on-year level since 2001 for a sixth straight month.

There were no pronounced movements seen in the simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities. The scores for "daily (minor) purchases", "medium-sized purchases" and "major (expensive) purchases" were all within their expected averages for both men and women.

Propensity to consume
for January 2007
54.7 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for January dropped 3.6 points from December to 54.7 points. During a typical year such a pullback is common after the usual jump in buying in December. However, this is still 1.2 points higher than January of last year and is the highest score for any January since 2001. In fact, this was the third straight month in which the on-year score was the highest since 2001.
This is a promising start to the new year, but consumer confidence in the coming months will likely hold the key to whether or not improving corporate earnings are having a positive impact on household budgets and personal spending. During a typical year the Consumer Confidence Index falls sharply in February and so it will be important to carefully monitor the degree of any such fall next month.

A breakdown of January's Consumer Confidence Index by gender shows a 2.1-point drop for men to 51.1 points and a 5.1-point slide for women to 58.3 points. Compared to January of 2006 this marked a 1.9-point gain for men and a 0.6-point rise for women. This was the highest score for men for any January since 2002 and was the best January for women since 2001. The Consumer Confidence Index for women has been at its highest levels since 2001 for five straight months from September of 2006.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities revealed some of the highest percentages in recent years for people, both men and women, wanting to spend more on "life with family", suggesting they were caught up in the New Year holiday spirit. In terms of the desire "purchase things", the scores for men were average across all sectors. The scores for women were also in line with established averages for "medium-sized".

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