The Consumer Confidence Index expresses the "propensity to consume" in the following month, as a percentage score given by respondents on HILL's independent survey panel. Respondents are asked to rate their propensity to consume (i.e. their desire to buy products or use services) in the following month, taking 100 as the maximum propensity to consume. We have conducted these surveys every month since April 1993.

• 2011
• 2010
• 2009
• 2008
• 2007
• 2006
• 2005
• 2004
• 2003
• 2002

Propensity to consume
for December 2004
57.0 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for December jumped 5.2 points from November to mark its highest level for 2004. Furthermore, this was also the highest score for any December since 2001. Thanks to this big jump in December, the average Consumer Confidence Index for 2004 has risen to 52.3 pionts, bringing to a halt the decline in the annual average seen since 2000. In other words, this is the first time in five years that the average annual Consumer Confidence Index topped the annual average from the previous year.

During a typical year the propensity to spend tends to increase toward the end of the year, but the size of this month's rise is still considered to be remarkable. The sudden drop in consumer confidence in November can now be attributed to the series of natural disasters and other temporary events. Even though there have been some recent observations suggesting that the economy is in something of a standstill, the propensity to spend among consumers has been in a solid recovery trend based on the changes in this index since June.

Consumer confidence for both men and women rose sharply in December to mark their highest levels in 2004. Consumer confidence for men rose 3.5 points from 48.1 points in November to 51.6 points, while the figure for women rose 6.9 points from 55.5 points in November to 62.4 points. The 6.9-point rise for women was particularly remarkable. In fact, this was the first time since December 2000 (48 months) that the score for women topped 62 points.

The simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities further underscored this robust consumer confidence. The scores for both men and women set new highs for 2004 or came very close to their previous highs for the year for the three categories of "daily (minor) purchases", "medium-sized purchases" and "major (expensive) purchases". In particular, the propensity to spend for "major (expensive) purchases" came to 13.3 points for men and 15.1 points for women, which were the highest levels recorded since May of 2002. Winter bonuses paid out by major corporations are up for the second year in a row, and it can be said that this extra money has helped to increase the desire to spend on more expensive items.

Propensity to consume
for November 2004
51.8 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for November fell 1.1 points to 51.8 points, undermining the expectations that consumer sentiment was ready to end the year on an up note after rising in October for the first time in three months. This figure also represents a 0.8-point drop compared to November of last year, bringing to an end the streak of five straight months in which the Consumer Confidence Index topped the level seen for the same month during the previous year.

This decline in consumer confidence has been blamed largely on natural calamities, such as the series of typhoons that hit Japan during this period as well as the powerful earthquake that rocked the Niigata region. Consumer confidence from December will need to be closely monitored to determine whether or not the setback in November is simply a temporary occurrence.

Both men and women had tighter purse strings in November. Consumer confidence for men slipped 0.6 point from 48.7 points in October to 48.1 points in November. Consumer confidence for women fell by a much larger 1.6 points from 57.1 points in October to 55.5 points in November. It is believed that women were more keenly aware of the typhoons and earthquake as these natural calamities had a more direct impact on their daily lives in terms of pushing up the prices of vegetables while reducing opportunities for going out.

A simultaneous survey of lifestyle priorities showed that the propensity to spend among women for "daily (minor) purposes" came to only 24.9%, which was the second lowest level this year. This supports the idea that consumer confidence among women was particularly hurt by the typhoons and earthquake.

Propensity to consume
for October 2004
52.9 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for October came to 52.9 points, rising 1.6 points from 51.3 points in September. This marked the first rise in three months and was the second highest score this year behind the top score in July. The propensity to spend tends to rise over the final three months of a typical year and so there are expectations that a new high for the year will be set during the coming months.

The Consumer Confidence Index was 2 points higher compared to the same month last year. In fact, this marks the fifth straight month of on-year increases, and so it can be said that the overall propensity to spend has remained stable at a fairly high level. The main characteristic of this month's data is that consumer confidence increased both for men and women.

Consumer confidence for men rose 1.7 points from 47.0 points in September to 48.7 points in October. Similarly, consumer confidence for women climbed 1.5 points from 55.6 in September to 57.1 points in October. In fact, consumer confidence for women hit its second highest level this year, just behind the top score in July. The scores for both men and women also topped their respective scores for the same month last year. The consumer confidence for women was at its highest level for any October since 2000, suggesting that a solid recovery trend is in place.

After a record-setting heat wave this summer, temperatures finally started to cool off towards the end of September, which has led to heightened interest in new fall fashions among both men and women. This is believed to be a main factor behind this month's rise in consumer confidence.

Propensity to consume
for September 2004
51.3 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for September came to 51.3 points, which marked a 1.6-point drop from 52.9 points in August. During a typical year the propensity to spend tends to decrease between August and September. However, the Consumer Confidence Index this month was actually 1.4 points higher compared to the same month last year, which suggests that the overall propensity to spend remains strong.

The main characteristic of this month's data is a big drop in consumer confidence among men, from 50.8 points in August to 47.0 points. After topping the 50-point mark for the first time this year in August, consumer confidence for men has again fallen into the 40's. In fact, September was the second lowest score this year. On the other hand, consumer confidence among women in September rose to 55.6 points from 55.0 points in August. This result bucked the typical trend of a drop in consumer confidence between August and September. Consumer confidence among women actually increased 3.1 points in September from the same month last year, underscoring the continuation in the recent strong trend.

A survey of lifestyle priorities was also conducted in order to better understand the factors behind the drop in consumer confidence among men. In August there were big increases in the propensity to spend on "Life with your family" (up 9.8 points from July) and on "Recreation and leisure" (up 12.5 points from July), but the scores for both of these areas fell back sharply in September. The propensity to spend on "Life with your family" fell 12.8 points from the previous month and the desire to spend on "Recreation and leisure" slumped 24.3 points. These decreases were particularly pronounced among men in their 30's and 40's. During August the weather was unusually hot and the Olympics were held. It can be assumed that those fathers that spent a lot of energy and money on pursuits with their families in August are trying to enjoy a less hectic September.

Propensity to consume
for August 2004
52.9 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for August came to 52.9 points, which marked a 1.6 point drop from 54.5 points in July. During a typical year the propensity to consume tends to drop between July and August and so the 1.6-point drop for this month can be largely attributed to seasonal factors.

The Consumer Confidence Index for August was up 0.3 point compared to the same month last year, which suggests that strong consumer sentiment has been maintained. However, figures for August tend to be very stable and so the numbers from September onward will need to be closely monitored to ascertain the next trend.

The main feature of this month's data is a drop in consumer confidence for women, but a rise for men. Consumer confidence for women fell from 59.6 in July to 55.0 in August. On the other hand, consumer confidence for men rose from 49.5 in July to 50.8 in August, despite the above-mentioned seasonal factors.

A survey of lifestyle priorities was also conducted in order to better understand the factors behind the stronger consumer confidence among men. There were clear increases in the propensity to spend on "Life with your family" (up 9.8 points from July) and on "Recreation and leisure" (up 12.5 points from July). The unusually hot weather this summer probably contributed to this stronger desire to spend on family and leisure. However, over the longer term this data may suggest that men spending more time with their families could be the key to increased consumption.

Propensity to consume
for July 2004
54.5 points

The Consumer Confidence Index for July 2004 rose 1.7 points from June to 54.5.

The Consumer Confidence Index for July came to 54.5 points, which was an increase of 1.7 points from 52.8 points last month. This represents a 1.6-point improvement from the same month last year and is a continuation of the rise in consumer confidence seen last month.
During the past couple of months there has been a noticeable increase in the number of media reports on Japan's economic recovery and it is believed that this good economic news has been helping to improve sentiment among consumers.

Big Rise in Propensity to Spend among Women

Consumer confidence for women rose from 55.7 points in June to 59.6 points in July, marking a big improvement for the second straightmonth. However, it should be noted that consumer confidence for men slipped slightly to 49.5 points from 49.9 points in June.

A comparison of the surveys of lifestyle priorities for June and July reveals large differences between men and women in terms of purchase priorities. The propensity to spend among women was up 4.3 points for "daily (minor) purchases" (June: 26.9 -> July: 31.2), up 4 points for "medium-sized purchases" (June: 15.4 -> July: 19.4) and up 2.6 points for "major (expensive) purchases" (June: 5.5 -> July: 8.1). The propensity to spend among men was up 1.9 points for "daily (minor) purchases" (June: 24.9 -> July: 26.8), down 0.9 point for "medium-sized purchases" (June: 15.3 -> July: 14.4) and up 2.4 points for "major (expensive) purchases" (June: 7.9 -> July: 10.3). There was a big jump in the desire to purchase items in the "daily (minor) purchases" and "medium-sized purchases" among women and it can be said that this jump supported the rise in the overall Consumer Confidence Index for the month.

Propensity to consume
for June 2004
52.8 points

The Consumer Confidence Index in June came to 52.8 points, which was a 2.4 point improvement from 50.4 points last month.

This was also a 1.6 point improvement over June of last year, marking the first on-year improvement in four months.
The Consumer Confidence Index had been stagnating since March, but has enjoyed a sudden recovery since the start of June.

During a typical year the propensity to spend tends to drop in June as Japan enters the rainy season, and so this year's rise in the Consumer Confidence Index between May and June is quite surprising.

The reason for this recovery is likely due to the noticeable increase in the coverage of Japan's "economic recovery" in newspapers, magazines and other media during the past month.

Since March consumer confidence among women has continued to hover at a low level, which is not the case during a typical year. However, an improvement was finally seen when the consumer confidence for women rose from 53.4 points in May to 55.7 points in June, marking the first move over the 55-point line this year. Consumer confidence for men also improved, rising from 47.5 points in May to 49.9 in June, just missing the 50-point mark. Typically "economic recovery" stories in newspapers, as well as various macroeconomic trends, have little impact on women as they tend to base their judgments much more on their actual perceptions of their surroundings. However, it seems that the recent mass media reports on Japan's economic recovery have had a big impact consumer confidence, even among women.

Propensity to consume
for May 2004
50.8 points

The Consumer Confidence Index in May came to 50.4 points, which was a 0.3 point decrease from 50.7 points last month. Compared to the same month last year, this represented a 1.4-point drop and was the worst May on record. In fact this year has seen the lowest scores ever for a March, an April and now a May. The Consumer Confidence Index continues to hover at a very low level just slightly above the 50-point line.

A survey of lifestyle priorities was also conducted in order to better understand the reasons behind this poor level of consumer confidence. This survey showed that the propensity to spend was up 1.2 points on-year for "daily (minor) purchases", unchanged for "medium-sized purchases" and down 2.1 points for "major (expensive) purchases". This shows that other than for the slight drop in the intention to make major purchases, there has not been a noticeably significant drop in the overall propensity to spend. However, there were noticeable drops in the scores for recreation and leisure. The score for spending on "personal relationships" fell 3.7 points from the same month last year, "hobbies & pastimes" dropped 3.4 points on-year and "housework and household affairs" slumped 3.8 points.

The particularly low level of consumer confidence among women becomes much more apparent when making comparisons between the sexes, as was the case last month. Consumer confidence among men slipped 0.2 point from April, while consumer confidence among women fell 0.4 point. Compared to the same month last year, consumer confidence was off only 0.2 point for men, but was down 2.6 points for women.

Lifestyle priorities were examined to better ascertain the reasons behind the poor consumer confidence among women. There was a clear drop in the propensity among women to spend on entertainment and leisure. The score for "personal relationships" fell 4.9 points from the same month last year and the score for "recreation and leisure" slid 4.8 points. A drop in the score for "personal relationships", an area that is believed to be much more meaningful to women than men, will likely have a big impact on overall consumer confidence. Concerns about pensions and other lifestyle worries are probably weighing heavily on women, which in turn has disrupted some of their key purchasing desires.

Propensity to consume
for April 2004
50.7 points

The Consumer Confidence Index came to 50.7 points this month, which was a 0.6 point increase from 50.1 points last month. Even though there was an increase from the pervious month, this index remains at a very low level. In fact this year has seen the lowest scores ever for a March and an April.

There were also large drops in the survey of lifestyle priorities as compared to April of last year. In particular, the score for "recreation and leisure" fell a sharp 6.5 points (from 57.4 points in April 2003 to 50.9 points in April 2004). This suggests that concerns about domestic terrorism linked to the war in Iraq have had a negative impact on "recreation and leisure".

When making comparisons between men and women, the low level of consumer confidence among women becomes much more apparent. Consumer confidence among men rose 1.0 point from 46.7 in March to 47.7 in April. However, consumer confidence for women rose only a mere 0.2 point from 53.6 in March to 53.8 in April. Contrasting results emerged when on-year comparisons were made between men and women. Consumer confidence for men rose 1.9 points (from 45.8 points in April 2003 to 47.7 points in April 2004), while consumer confidence for women fell 2.2 points (from 56.0 points in April 2003 to 53.8 points in April 2004). These results suggest that the start of the war in Iraq last year did not have a noticeable impact on consumer confidence among women, but this impact is now starting to be felt as the dangers of this conflict hit closer to home.

Propensity to consume
for March 2004
50.1 points

The Consumer Confidence Index came to 50.1 points this month, which was a 0.7 points drop from 50.8 points last month. During a typical year the Consumer Confidence Index will bottom sometime in February and then begin rising toward March on growing demand for spring-related products. However, this typical strong rise in March has yet to be seen this year.

It is assumed that the main reason for this situation is the unusually warm winter that was experienced this year. The typical February drop in consumer confidence was somewhat milder this year, but at the same time the expected lift in consumer confidence brought about by the seasonal change from winter to spring is probably weaker due to the unusually warm winter. This sluggish March trend is particularly pronounced among women. A clear pattern can be seen on the chart of monthly results. It is only during this year that a different pattern emerges for February and March.

The pattern for a typical year takes the form of an acute rise during February and January. However, this year there was no such rise, and in fact there was a 0.6 point drop. The level came to only 95.7% of the level seen for the same period last year.

As mentioned earlier, it can be assumed that the unusually warm winter played a large role in hurting consumption, especially in the area of spring clothing purchases by women. However, this is not the only reason for the unusual consumption pattern among women. The outbreak of bird flu and other concerns about food safety also contributed to this weaker consumption. It cannot be denied that concerns about everyday shopping at supermarkets and eating out had a negative impact on consumption, particularly among housewives.

Propensity to consume
for February 2004
50.8 points

This month's consumer confidence index stood at 50.8 points, down 1.2 points from last month's 52.0.

Although the index tends to take a nosedive in your typical February, this year the drop from January to February was unusually slight. Consumer confidence also stood at a higher level than in February of last year — 106.2% of the figure for that month, to be exact. It's also worth noting that this is the first time since 2001 — three years ago — that consumer confidence for February has risen above the 50-point mark.

The mood of optimism is especially marked among women. As a glance at the graph for consumer confidence among woman shows, until now the index has without exception plunged between January and February. But this year is different: the index dipped by only a marginal 0.5. The reason that women's consumer confidence remains so strong can be gleaned from the survey of lifestyle priorities conducted at the same time. Between January and February the urge to buy merchandise as represented by "daily purchases," "occasional purchases" and "major (expensive) purchases" floundered, but the two categories of "hobbies and pastimes" and "recreation and leisure" chalked up major gains. So the desire for entertainment is what's buoying up consumer confidence among women. It's not merchandise they want to buy: it's a good time.

Propensity to consume
for January 2004
52.0 points

This month's consumer confidence index stood at 52.0, down 4.2 points from last month's 56.2. That 4.2-point drop is stark indeed, especially considering the steady rise that the index recorded between last fall and the end of the year. Although consumer confidence typically slips between December and the following January-February anyway, this year's decline is particularly dramatic.

This month's index is also down slightly — by 0.5 points — compared to last January. Indeed, this is the worst showing for January on record.

Thus, while consumer confidence heated up considerably at the end of last year, it seems to have cooled off again as the new year gets off to a start. The big question is, how well will it hold out next month?

The index for men slipped 2.8 points from 52.1 last month to 49.3 this month, while that for women plummeted 5.7 points from 60.4 to 54.7. Note how the decline among men is less severe. Consumer confidence among men is evidently holding out better because:

• Men are more easily influenced by macroeconomic trends in how willing they are to open their wallets. Hence they have reacted promptly to signs of economic recovery like improved corporate results and rising share prices.
• Male shoppers in particular continue to succumb to the allure of the latest Big Three consumer items (ultra-slim TVs, DVD recorders and digital cameras) and today's other leading products.

• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 

Japanese